ETHUSDC FullBullMarket 2025 Backtest

CompletedLoses to ETHUSDC B&H· α -14.51%

FullBullMarket5/7/2026, 10:56:37 AM

ETHUSDC | 1FullBullMarket.json | 2025-01-01 - 2025-12-31 | -26.00% | 38366 trades | 81% WR

Final Value
7400.13 USDT
Return
-26.00%
Profit
-2,647.54 USDT
Trades
38366
Win Rate
80.6%
Open Orders
51
Best Trade
+3.502609 USDT
Worst Trade
-1.568086 USDT
Max Drawdown
-27.64%
Profit Factor
0.72
Sharpe
-2.03
Wins / Losses
30919 / 7447
TP / SL / TSL
15896 / 7447 / 15023
Total Fees
1576.33 USDT
Max Streak W/L
1166 / 83
Hold P50 / P95
2.4h / 2.0d

ETHUSDC Backtest – unCoded Crypto TradingBot

Strategy: FullBullMarket | Period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 | Starting Capital: 10,000.00 USDT | Final Value: 7,400.13 USDT | Return: -26.00% | Trades: 38,366 | Win Rate: 80.6% | Best Trade: 3.5026 USDT | Worst Trade: -1.5681 USDT | Total Profit: -2,647.54 USDT | Max Drawdown: -27.64% | Profit Factor: 0.72 | Sharpe Ratio: -2.03 | Total Fees: 1,576.33 USDT

Detailed Summary

Backtest ETHUSDC (Mode: 1FullBullMarket.json) Period: 2025-01-01 00:00:01 to 2025-12-31 23:59:59 Starting balance: 10,000.00 USDT Final value: 7,400.13 USDT P&L: -2,599.87 USDT (-26.00%) Result: LOSS Completed trades: 38366 Open orders at end: 51 Win rate: 80.6% Avg. profit/trade: -0.069007 USDT Best trade: 3.502609 USDT Worst trade: -1.568086 USDT Total profit (trades only): -2,647.539236 USDT Max drawdown: -27.64% Profit factor: 0.72 Sharpe ratio: -2.03 Total fees: 1,576.33 USDT Avg hold time: 10.6h TP / SL / TSL: 15896 / 7447 / 15023 Strategy parameters: Buy trigger: -0.2% from last buy Buy splits: 4 Sell targets: [0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0] Investment per buy: 100.0 USDT Stop-loss: 5.0% Trailing stop-loss: [0.0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.8] Fees: maker 7.5 bps / taker 7.5 bps Elapsed: 61.3s

Strategy Configuration – FullBullMarket
Buy Trigger: -0.2%
Buy Splits: 4
Investment/Buy: 100 USDT
Start Balance: 10,000.00 USDT
Percent Mode: No
Free Quote %: 1.00%
Min Investment/Quote: 20 USDT
Min Quote Balance: 1 USDT
Can Buy: Yes
Can Buy Up: Yes
Can Buy Down: Yes
Can Sell: Yes
Stop Loss: Yes (5%)
Maker Fee: 7.5 bps
Taker Fee: 7.5 bps
Assumed Spread: 0 bps
Fees in Quote: Yes
Tick Size: 0.01
Step Size: 0.0001
Min Notional: 5
Intrabar Mode: OLHC
Order Latency: 2s
Cooldown: 1
Sell Activate Dist: 0.1%
Sell Cancel Dist: 1%
Sell Zones (4):
+0.5% → 30%+1% → 30%+2% → 20%+4% → 20%
Trailing SL: 0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.8%

Performance Analysis

This run produced a -26.00% return on ETHUSDC — a clear loss in the tested window. Useful primarily as a negative datapoint about parameter combinations that did not fit ETHUSDC market conditions over these dates.

About ETHUSDC: Ethereum sits one tier below Bitcoin in market cap and slightly above it in realised volatility. ETH pairs typically reward strategies that can hold through brief drawdowns to capture larger trend moves.

An 80.6% closed-trade win rate across 38,366 closed trades on ETHUSDC is unusually high. Strategies that win this often typically use small take-profits relative to stop-losses, which works until a single large adverse ETHUSDC move erases many small wins. This figure covers closed trades only and **excludes 51 orders** that were still open at the end of the window.

At roughly 105.1 ETHUSDC trades per day this is a high-frequency configuration — fee drag and slippage assumptions become critical when extrapolating to live trading on Binance Spot.

The trade payoff distribution is positively skewed — outsized winners drove the bulk of the result, which is characteristic of trend-capturing modes. Best single trade: 3.5026 USDT. Worst: -1.5681 USDT. Average per trade: -0.0690 USDT.

Risk profile (closed trades only): Per-trade exposure was minimal — the worst closed trade only cost 0.02% of starting capital. That low-risk-per-trade footprint is the signature of a tightly-sized configuration; expect smoother equity curves but also slower compounding in strong trend regimes. Best single trade contributed +0.04% to the account, giving a best-vs-worst ratio of roughly 2.23:1 between the extreme closed trades. Note: this is a closed-trade statistic — open positions and unrealized PnL are not included.

About the FullBullMarket strategy: FullBullMarket is tuned for sustained uptrends — it scales position size into rising markets and gives winners room to run. It tends to underperform in choppy or bear conditions.

Configuration analysis: The FullBullMarket configuration entered on a 0.2% pullback signal across 4 potential buy splits at 100 USDT each. Total deployable notional is therefore 400 USDT — a position-sizing footprint that is defensive at 4% of starting capital — most of the account stays in stablecoins as buffer. A hard stop-loss at 5% caps downside per position; this is what gives the equity curve its lower bound. Profit is taken in 4 laddered sell zones, which scales out gradually rather than betting on a single exit price — a structure that smooths returns at the cost of capping the very best winners. Maker/taker fees totalling 15 bps were deducted from every fill, so the headline -26.00% is already net of trading costs — no additional fee adjustment is required when comparing to other runs.

Over the configured 365-day window the strategy reported -2647.54 USDT of realised trade profit on a 10000 USDT starting balance, ending at a portfolio value of 7400.13 USDT. Mechanically annualising the -26.00% window return projects to roughly -26.0% per year — the window covers roughly one full year, so the annualised figure is closer to the realised pace than to an extrapolation, but a single year still represents a single market regime. Treat this number as a unit-conversion of the window result, not as an expected forward return.

Methodology & data

This backtest was executed on historical Binance Spot candles for ETHUSDC at a base resolution between 1 second and 1 minute (1-second for liquid pairs, 1-minute where finer data is unavailable), with intrabar fill simulation in "OLHC" mode and a synthetic order latency of 2s applied to each fill to approximate real-world routing delay. The simulator processes each base candle sequentially, evaluates the FullBullMarket rule set, and books fills against the next available bar, a standard event-driven backtesting approach that avoids look-ahead bias. Equity is marked-to-market on every closed trade and aggregated into the equity curve shown above.

Configured backtest window: approximately 12.0 months (365 days from `config.from` to `config.to`) of ETHUSDC price action at 1-second to 1-minute resolution — a sample size that is large enough to span multiple short-term regimes. Note: the equity series may cover fewer days if the engine omits leading or trailing flat periods (e.g. dates before the asset began trading); see the Overview section for the exact equity-coverage span.

Live trading considerations

Translating this result to live trading: ETHUSDC liquidity should be checked separately — fill assumptions can drift if the order book is thin during volatile windows. The high trade frequency means cumulative slippage and exchange-side latency will erode a few percent of the headline return over a full year — budget for that gap. The configured 5% stop-loss should fire predictably in live conditions for liquid pairs, but during exchange outages or order-book gaps the realised stop can slip several percent past the trigger price — a risk to size around. Additionally, exchange downtime, API rate limits, and funding-rate changes (on perp variants) are not modelled here and should be accounted for in production deployment.

Frequently asked questions

Is a -26.00% return on ETHUSDC a good backtest result?
Not on its own. The -26.00% return looks strong in isolation, but simply holding ETHUSDC over the same window returned -11.49%, so this configuration underperformed buy-and-hold by -14.51% (negative alpha). A high headline return is not a good result when holding the coin would have done better.
What does the 80.6% win rate mean here?
It means 80.6 out of every 100 closed trades ended profitable. Frequent wins are emotionally easier to operate but say nothing about size — one large loss can offset many small wins.
What is the annualised return for this ETHUSDC backtest?
This backtest already covers about a full year (365 days), so the annualised figure is essentially the total return of -26.00% itself, not a projection. A single year is not predictive of future years.
Can I run this exact FullBullMarket configuration live?
The configuration shown in the Strategy Configuration block is the same JSON schema the live unCoded TradingBot consumes, so it can be loaded into a live instance. That is a technical compatibility statement, not a recommendation: a passing backtest is necessary but not sufficient evidence that a configuration will be profitable in live trading. Before any live use, validate on an out-of-sample window, paper-trade it, confirm exchange-side fees match the simulated 7.5/7.5 bps, and start with a position size well below the backtested capital to absorb live slippage and execution differences.
How is this backtest different from others on ETHUSDC?
Every run on the platform uses the same intrabar-fill engine and historical Binance Spot data, so the comparison is apples-to-apples. What differs between runs is the FullBullMarket parameter set (buy trigger, sell zones, splits, stop-loss) and the time window — both are visible above so you can rerun, tune, or fork this configuration.

This interpretation is generated deterministically from this run's own metrics. Past performance is not indicative of future results — a profitable backtest is necessary but not sufficient evidence that a strategy will work in live trading on ETHUSDC.

Loading equity data...

Trades

0 Trades

0 abgeschlossene Trades – unCoded Crypto TradingBot Backtest
#TypKaufVerkaufMengeProfit%Kauf-ZeitVerkauf-ZeitFee
Loading...